Finance

Crypto exchange OKX is currently offering both a boosted $200 bonus in crypto and a 10% deposit match on USDG stablecoin (up to 300 USDG on 3,000 USDG deposit). Details below. Offer expires 10/31 at 6pm.

Here are the steps for the $200 bonus for new OKX customers:

• Sign up via referral link. I think they allow either smartphone or browser sign-up, but identity verification may be easier on a smartphone. That’s my referral link, which should auto-populate with the promo code 79795662. Thanks if you use it!
• Complete identity verification (driver’s license and smartphone selfie).
• Deposit $200+ of either cash (link bank account via Plaid) or crypto within 30 days.
• Buy $200 or more of crypto (can be stablecoin like USDG) and hold the assets for at least 30 days within a 90-day period.
• After 90 days, the bonus will be tradable and withdrawable.

Note: Before you deposit any cash, opt into the deposit match bonus first so you can “double dip” if you plan on buying USDG (the conservative approach).

You should get confirmation of the bonus shortly after linking a bank account and making the trade. Here’s some app screenshots regarding my bonus, which are pretty clear. I did mine on 10/21/25 and so mine unlocks on 1/19/26.

Here are the details on the 10% deposit match:

• Get a 10% match for every 500 USDG you deposit (buy) and hold for 90 days, up to a max reward of 300 USDG after depositing 3000 USDG (pegged 1:1 = $3,000).
• To be clear, this works in increments of 500. So if you buy/deposit 1,200 USDG, you’ll only get 100 USDG for meeting the 1,000 USDG tier. You can make multiple deposits and it will track them and add them up. See my screenshot of the tracker below.
• Your rewards make take up to 5 minutes to reflect.
• Rewards must be held for 90 days before you can use, trade, or withdraw them.

Please perform your own due diligence on crypto apps. They are not regulated on the same level as bank account or brokerage accounts. I usually don’t like to keep significant funds in there any longer than is required for the bonus to clear, but in this case the reward/risk ratio for 90 days is acceptable to me. Here is the OKX Wikipedia page and they are profiled in the Forbes article “The World’s Most Trustworthy Crypto Exchanges”. (Also see: Kraken and Gemini bonuses.)

I rarely share any market commentary, as I mostly believe that waiting around and doing nothing is the best course of action. However, I also have about 89 browser tabs open, and writing helps me organize my thinking, so here are some thoughts.

Recent AI news seems to have kicked off both even more AI optimism and AI skepticism. Here’s a Bloomberg article (paywall) outlining some of the circular deals:

Matt Levine has the funniest parody of this situation with tech CEOs whispering “omniscient robots” to each other and then saying “yesssssss”. From here on out, this is what I’ll visualize when a new deal is announced.

The financing tool is, you go to Broadcom and you put your arm around their shoulder and you gesture sweepingly in the distance and whisper “omniscient robots” and they whisper “yesssss” and you say “we’ll need a few hundred billions dollars of chips and equipment from you” and they say “of course” and you say “good” and they say “do you have hundreds of billions of dollars” and you whisper “omniscient robots” again and they are enlightened. And then you announce the deal and Broadcom’s stock adds $150 billion of market capitalization and you’re like “see” and they’re like “yes” and you’re like “omniscient robots” and they’re like “I know right.” That is the financing tool!

I mean, if OpenAI wants to buy $500 billion of NVDA chips, but doesn’t actually have $500 billion, but instead signs a promise that it will buy $500 billion of chips, and then NVDA goes up by $500 billion in market cap in response, and now agrees to either invest or lend $500B to OpenAI… is that pioneering genius? Or is it a bubble?

Of course, I have no idea. Heck, all the things that happened yesterday are a huge shock to me. How could I possibly predict the future?

I do know that if I sold every time I saw a chart warning me about high P/E ratios, I’d have been in cash for more than a decade and my portfolio would be much, much smaller. Instead, let’s look at some updated relative valuations to better measure the “crazy”. One thing is the earnings yield, which is the inverse of the price/earning ratio. So if the earning yield is 5%, then if the price is $100 then it reports $5 a year in earnings. If you own the S&P 500, it might be reasonable to assume that over the long-term, your earnings will grow at least with inflation.

Here are the historical earnings of the S&P 500 on a log scale, showing how they in fact tend to increase faster than inflation over the long run. (Source: Yardeni)

Then we also have TIPS, which offer a guaranteed real yield above inflation. Instead of traditional Treasury bonds, you could use this TIPS real yield as a base “risk-free rate”.

Here is a chart that compares the historical S&P 500 earnings yield and the TIPS real yield. Sources: FRED and Multpl. As you can see, the gap between the two is still positive, but it’s definitely shrinking and close to the narrowest it’s been during the last 15 years (right now about 1%).

The problem is that trying to time this stuff is not a good idea. It’s one of the those enduring lessons about investing. I can’t predict the top. I can’t predict the bottom.

One key feature of bubbles is seeing someone else get rich doing something stupid/risky, not being able to handle it, and then deciding you have to play along too. There is definitely a lot of the “getting rich doing something risky” going on. But then again, there are also a lot of people who went to zero but are quiet about it. All the money that went into the GraniteShares 3x Short AMD ETP… already went to zero.

At the same time, another one of the most important lessons of building wealth is that you must always avoid “blowing up”. If you multiply by zero, it doesn’t matter what your historical returns are. Never stop the compounding. Consider the scenario of (1) the stocks in your portfolio going down by 50%, (2) losing your job for 6 months, and (3) other people panicking. Those three things tend to happen at the same time.

As Howard Marks said in 2001 in one of the memos that made him famous: “You Can’t Predict. You Can Prepare.” Source: Humble Dollar. Now is a good time to check if you are prepared by checking the risk levels of your portfolio, your cash reserves, your job stability, and all of the other psychological intangibles.

I like to think that I am prepared. Portfolio-wise, I continue to buy, hold, and rebalance. Buying with ongoing IRA/401k contributions. Holding and not selling anything. Rebalancing by investing all incoming funds and dividends into Treasury bonds because I am overweight in US and international stocks. I’m keeping an eye on the cash cushion and planning for large expenses – we did some home repairs recently and probably have more on the horizon. I don’t require much liquidity in the near future, and I don’t own any private assets with potential liquidity concerns.

Barclays Bank Delaware is an FDIC-insured US bank with a limited-time offer of a $200 bonus if you deposit $30,000+ in new funds into their Tiered Savings Account. You must fund within 30 days of opening, and maintain the balance of at least $30,000 for another 120 consecutive days after funding. Bonus arrives after another 60 days. You must be a new Barclays Tiered Savings customer (current and previous Barclays customers with a Savings or CD are not eligible). Note that they have other flavors of savings accounts, so be sure to apply for the right one. Direct deposit is not required. Offer expires 12/31/2025.

There is a slightly better version of this bonus for AARP members (you will need an active membership number).

Here are the current interest rate tiers, as of 10/19/25. Note that it’s basically a 3.90% APY account unless you have a $250,000 balance. As with all savings accounts, the rates are also subject to change at any time.

Bonus math. This is a 0.66% bonus on $25,000 if you keep it there for 120 days, which makes it the equivalent of 2% APY annualized. Bonus will be paid around Day 180 and the account must be open at that time, but you only need to maintain full balance through Day 120 after funding. The bonus is on top of the standard interest rate, currently a relatively competitive 3.90% APY for a $25,000 balance as of 10/19/25.

The equivalent of roughly 5.90% total APY over 120 days makes it a decent offer for those with compatible balances looking for short-term place to hold their cash for a few months. However, it’s not as good as the currently live CIT Bank deposit offer that offers $225 for $25k and $300 for $50k with no minimum holding period.