Finance

Groupon has brought back their limited-time deal on new Costco Gold Star or Executive Memberships. There are two options.

$65 for Gold Star Membership Package

• 1-year Gold Star Membership (normally $65 by itself)
• Membership card for the Primary Cardholder and one additional Household Card for anyone living at the same address, over the age of 18.
• $40 Digital Costco Shop gift card Valid in-store and online. The Digital Costco Shop Card will be emailed within two weeks of sign-up.

$130 for Executive Membership Package

• 1-year Executive Membership (normally $130 by itself). Executive membership includes an annual 2% reward (up to $1,250) on eligible Costco and Costco Travel purchases.
• Executive membership now also includes early shopping hours from 9 a.m.
• Membership card for the Primary Cardholder and one additional Household Card for anyone living at the same address, over the age of 18.
• $40 Digital Costco Shop gift card Valid in-store and online. The Digital Costco Shop Card will be emailed within two weeks of sign-up.

They’ve made it a bit more restrictive in that both the Primary and Household/Affiliate member must not have had a membership in the last 18 months. I know that some people like to alternate between a Costco and Sam’s Club membership.

Valid only for new members and those whose previous memberships (Primary and Affiliate) have been expired for at least 18 months or more. Not valid for renewal or upgrade of an existing membership.

Save even more on your Groupon with a cashback shopping portal. The Rakuten $50 bonus now excludes the Costco offer, but others are actually paying an increased bonus. For example, BeFrugal has a $10 bonus when you join as a new member and earn $10 in rewards, plus 8% cash back on this Costco Groupon offer. If you buy the $130 offer, 8% of $130 is $10.40, enough to trigger the bonus.

In this Morningstar market brief, it is revealed that the average self-directed Vanguard investor (7 million accounts!) held an asset allocation of 65% stocks, 24% cash, and 10% bonds. That’s a lot more cash than I expected as well.

Then this WSJ article comes up, Wealth Management Has a $3 Trillion Problem: Investors Are Keeping Too Much Cash (gift article). A self-directed investor and former pilot is profiled that keeps 85% in stocks and 15% in a “a money-market fund yielding 3.62%”, which suggests a Vanguard money market fund or another very-low cost money market.

He is keeping 85% of his portfolio in stocks and the rest in a money-market fund yielding 3.62%. Ross looked at historical bear markets and determined they typically don’t last longer than three years. He keeps enough of his portfolio in cash to comfortably get himself through that period, and he sells stocks when he needs to replenish his cash pile.

The rest of the article is about financial advisors thinking this is wrong and suggesting all sorts of alternatives, from muni bonds to private credit to buffer ETFs.

Now wealth and asset managers, eager to prove their worth and in many cases earn more fees, are trying to persuade investors to put it to work. Search for the phrase “too much cash” and you will find numerous articles penned by the likes of JPMorgan Chase and Charles Schwab, warning about the risk of being underinvested.

I found myself siding with the pilot. Maybe an alternative bond fund would give you a slightly higher yield, but the yield curve right now is still not very steep. As long as you are smart with your cash holdings (“cash sort”) and avoid crappy default sweep options with low yield from brokerages (like *cough*, JPMorgan Chase at 0.01% and Charles Schwab at 0.01%!) and instead buying SGOV, VBIL, or a Vanguard money market fund, you won’t be losing that much to a riskier bond alternative. Perhaps that is also partially why the cash allocation of Vanguard investors is so high. Their money market funds are quite good.

Switching to other bonds types can be fine, but be aware of the additional risk you are accepting for that higher yield. You may be taking on principal risk (buffer ETFs can lose money), duration risk (longer-term bonds can lose money), credit risk, or liquidity risk (private credit may limit withdrawals).

Finally, cash is simply a very safe, very short-term bond. Bonds are broken down by maturity, and Treasury bills with under 30 days of maturity are considered cash (“cash equivalents”). I see nothing wrong with taking your risk with stocks and keeping your “bonds” the safest flavor of bonds possible.