Finance

Here’s my 2026 2nd Quarter income update as a companion post to my 2026 1st Quarter asset allocation & performance update. Even though I don’t focus on high-dividend stocks or covered-call strategies, I still track the income from my portfolio as an alternative metric to price performance. The total income goes up much more gradually and consistently than the number shown on brokerage statements, which helps encourage consistent investing. Here’s a quote from Jack Bogle (source):

The true investor will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies. – Jack Bogle

Stock dividends are a portion of profits that businesses have decided to distribute directly to shareholders, as opposed to reinvesting into their business, paying back debt, or buying back shares. They have explicitly decided that they don’t need this money to improve their business, and that it would be better to distribute it to shareholders. The dividends may suffer some short-term drops, but over the long run they have grown faster than inflation.

Here is the historical growth of the S&P 500 total dividend, which tracks roughly the largest 500 stocks in the US, updated as of 2026 Q1 (via Yardeni Research):

Admittedly, share buybacks have grown as a popular way to deal with extra cash, as shown in these charts (Yardeni). Many companies like that buybacks are not expected to continue forever, unlike dividends. This helps explain why the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is only around 1% now. This is why I also track the totals of both (buybacks + dividends), also shown below.

Tracking the income from my portfolio. Three of the primary “trees” that produce “fruit” in my portfolio are Vanguard Total US Stock ETF (VTI), Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS), and Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF (VNQ).

In the US, the dividend culture is somewhat conservative in that shareholders expect dividends to be stable and only go up. Thus the starting yield is lower, but grows more steadily with smaller cuts during hard times. Companies do buybacks as well, often because they are easier to discontinue. Here is an updated chart of the trailing 12-month (ttm) dividend per share over the last 15 years paid by the Vanguard Total US Stock ETF (VTI) via WallStNumbers.com.

European corporate culture tends to encourage paying out a higher (sometimes even fixed) percentage of earnings as dividends, but that also means the dividends move up and down with earnings. The starting yield is currently higher but may not grow as reliably. Here is an updated chart of the trailing 12-month (ttm) dividend per share over the last 15 years paid by the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS).

In the case of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), they are legally required to distribute at least 90 percent of their taxable income to shareholders as dividends. Historically, about half of the total return from REITs is from this dividend income. Here is an updated chart of the trailing 12-month (ttm) dividend per share over the last 15 years paid by the Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF (VNQ).

The dividend yield (dividends divided by price) also serve as a rough valuation metric. When stock prices drop, this percentage metric usually goes up – which makes me feel better in a bear market. When stock prices go up, this percentage metric usually goes down, which keeps me from getting too euphoric during a bull market.

Finally, the last income component of my portfolio comes from interest from bonds and cash. Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and Schwab US TIPS ETF (SCHP) are example holdings, with the actual amount varying with the prevailing interest rates, the real rates on TIPS, and the current rate of inflation.

Dividend and interest income yield. To estimate the income from my portfolio, I use the weighted “TTM” or “12-Month Yield” from Morningstar (checked 7/7/26), which is the sum of the trailing 12 months of interest and dividend payments divided by the last month’s ending share price (NAV) plus any capital gains distributed (usually zero for index funds) over the same period. My TTM portfolio yield is now roughly 2.44%.

In dividend investing circles, there is a metric called yield on cost, which is calculated by dividing the current dividend by the original purchase price. In other words, while my portfolio yield today is may be lower than say a target withdrawal rate of 3%, that is because the current market price is also a lot higher. Due to increasing dividends on average over time, my yield-on-cost based on my portfolio value from 10 years ago is over 5%.

What about the 4% rule? For big-picture purposes, I support the simple 4% or 3% rule of thumb, which equates to a target of accumulating roughly 25 to 33 times your annual expenses. I would lean towards a 3% withdrawal rate if you want to retire young (closer to age 50) and a 4% withdrawal rate if retiring at a more traditional age (closer to 65). It’s just a quick and dirty target to get you started, not a number sent down from the heavens!

During the accumulation stage, your time is better spent focusing on earning potential via better career moves, improving your skillset, networking, and/or looking for asymmetrical (unlimited upside, limited downside) entrepreneurial opportunities where you have an ownership interest.

Our dividends and interest income are not automatically reinvested. They are simply another “paycheck”. As with our other variable paychecks, we can choose to either spend it or invest it again to compound things more quickly. You could use this money to cut back working hours, pursue a different career path, start a new business, take a sabbatical, perform charity or volunteer work, and so on. You don’t have to wait until you hit a magic number. Our life path has been very different because of this philosophy. FIRE is Life!

Here is my 2026 2nd Quarter portfolio update that includes 401k/403b/IRAs and taxable brokerage accounts but excludes our house and small side portfolio of self-directed investments. Following the concept of skin in the game, the following is not a recommendation, but a sharing of our real-world, imperfect DIY portfolio.

“Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have in their portfolio.” – Nassim Taleb

How I Track My Portfolio
Here’s how I track my portfolio across multiple brokers and account types:

• The Empower Personal Dashboard real-time portfolio tracking tools (free) automatically logs into my multiple accounts, adds up my various balances, tracks my performance, and figures out my overall asset allocation across the entire portfolio. Formerly known as Personal Capital.
• Once a quarter, I also update my manual Google Spreadsheet (free to copy, instructions) because it helps me calculate how much I need in each asset class to rebalance back towards my target asset allocation. I also create a new sheet each quarter, so I have a personal archive of my portfolio dating back many years.

2026 2nd Quarter Asset Allocation and YTD Performance
Here are updated performance and asset allocation charts, per the “Holdings” and “Allocation” tabs of my Empower Personal Dashboard.

The major components of my portfolio are broad index ETFs. I do mix it up a bit around the edges, but not very much. Here is a model version of my target asset allocation with sample ETF holdings for each asset class.

• 35% US Total Market (VTI)
• 5% US Small-Cap Value (AVUV)
• 20% International Total Market (VXUS)
• 5% International Small-Cap Value (AVDV)
• 5% US REITs (VNQ)
• 20% US “Regular” Treasury Bonds and/or FDIC-insured deposits (VGSH)
• 10% US Treasury Inflation-Protected Bonds (SCHP)

Big picture, the target is 70% businesses and 30% very safe short-term bonds/cash:

By paying minimal costs including management fees, transaction spreads, and tax drag, I am trying to essentially guarantee myself above-average net performance over time.

I do not spend a lot of time backtesting various model portfolios. You’ll usually find that whatever model portfolio is popular at the moment just happens to hold the asset class that has been the hottest recently.

The portfolio that you can hold onto through the tough times is the best one for you. I’ve been pretty much holding this same portfolio for 20 years. Check out these ancient posts from 2004 and 2005. Every asset class will eventually have a low period, and you must have strong faith during these periods to earn those historically high returns. You have to keep owning and buying more stocks through the stock market crashes. You have to maintain and even buy more rental properties during a housing crunch, etc. A good sign is that if prices drop, you should feel the urge to buy more of that asset instead of less. I don’t have strong faith in the long-term results of commodities, gold, or bitcoin – so I don’t own them.

Performance details. Here’s an updated YTD Growth of $10,000 chart courtesy of Testfolio for some of the major index ETFs (total US stock, total international stock, total US bond) that shows the difference in performance in the broad indexes:

First quarter of 2026, the US broad indexes (VTI) dropped, but came back and then some in the 2nd quarter. International stocks (VXUS) are slightly ahead for the year. I’m getting a bit too stock-heavy so will be directing rebalancing funds towards bonds. I’ll share about more about the income aspect in a separate post.

Vanguard recently rolled out a new “Security Score” that encourages folks to activate all of the various security features they have available, and included is a new feature called “Outgoing Transfer Lock”. This is an important and useful option that I think all Vanguard customers should activate immediately.

Background on ACAT transfer scams. Instead of hacking your Vanguard account directly, a thief will obtain enough of your personal information to open a new brokerage account somewhere else, say E*Trade, and then they will request an ACAT transfer of the entire contents of your existing brokerage account (ex. Vanguard) to that new fake E*Trade account which they control. At this point, they can quickly liquidate the account and send the money elsewhere. The key here is that they just need to be able to open an empty, new brokerage account in your name plus find your Vanguard account numbers from somewhere. They don’t need your Vanguard username and password (or pass two-factor authentication, etc).

This loophole, ironically, comes from FINRA Rule 11870, which was created to protect consumers from a broker not letting you leave them. If you request a transfer, the old broker has one business day to validate the authenticity, and then they only have 3 business days to complete the transfer. If they don’t complete the transfer in a timely manner, the old broker gets into trouble with the regulatory agency FINRA. Thus, the pressure is actually on your old broker to approve it quickly. They are not even required to notify you of the transfer. In fact, with nearly every legitimate ACAT transfer I’ve completed, the old broker never made a peep.

Fidelity was the first major brokerage to create a Money Transfer Lockdown feature in response, where you can opt-in to an extra layer of verification to prevent unauthorized transfers (both ACAT and certain bank transfers). Vanguard’s “Outgoing Transfer Lock” applies to ACATs only, with a different option called “Full Transfer Lock” that includes bank transfers coming later. Here’s the wording taken directly from the Vanguard website:

What is an outgoing transfer lock?
An outgoing transfer lock prevents ACAT, or Automated Customer Account Transfer. This is a standard system brokerages use to transfer assets between institutions. Another brokerage institution should only initiate ACAT after you’ve opened an account with them and asked them to transfer your assets from Vanguard.

Locking your accounts for outgoing transfers protects your assets from being moved to an outside brokerage institution without your consent—a common type of fraud. It doesn’t apply to bank transfers you initiate, so you still have access to your money.

What is a full transfer lock? (Coming soon)
A full transfer lock prevents all money movement into and out of your account, including fund transfers to and from other brokerage institutions. Additional details about specific limitations will be provided once this account lock is available.

Essentially, this means that for someone to steal your assets, they would also need to be able to log into your brokerage account and disable the transfer lock. You can still move your assets when you really want to, it’s just harder to fake. Therefore, I believe this is should be turned on by basically everyone.

Activation instructions. Here’s how to find it on the website:

• Log in at Vanguard.com
• Click on “Profile” at the top-right corner, and then “Security Profile”
• Scroll down to “Outgoing transfer lock” and click on “Manage”
• Enable for all or selected accounts.

This also works in the app:

• Log into your Vanguard app
• Click on “Profile” at the bottom-right corner, and then “Security Profile”
• Scroll down to “Fraud Prevention Tools” and click on “Lock your account”
• Enable for all or selected accounts.

While you’re there, you can review all of your other security settings as well.