Finance

December 2025 marks the 21st anniversary of this site. Every year about this time, I think to myself: “How crazy! It worked!” I’ve been able to choose my work (or not to work) on my own terms for a while now. However, I keep going because I feel that the sharing and writing itself provides both myself and others an ongoing benefit. Writing for others makes me research more thoroughly and improve my understanding of the topic. While it may be trendy to mock “content creators”, I continue to love learning new stuff from online communities and individuals.

Another of the substacks I follow is Sketchplanations by Jono Hey, which explains complex ideas using simple sketches. Topics may include everything from vocabulary words to scientific theories. Apple and Ideas illustrates the following quote often attributed to George Bernard Shaw:

If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchange apples, then you and I will still each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange these ideas, then each of us will have two ideas.

In another sketch, Three Bricklayers Story does a great job explaining the “Three Bricklayers parable” about the power of having different perspectives in your work.

In that way, I think that each of us, sharing our own ideas with others, even has a greater purpose. Everyone can help each other move forward a little bit. I truly believe that everyone has something valuable to share about what lights their fire. Perhaps you post occasionally to an online forum, or just pass things along to close friends and children. Even sharing a mistake, what not do, is valuable. Making a mistake also means you at least took action, took a risk. I’m a shy person, but I’m always amazed that I always learn something even after short, casual conversations. Sometime just a quick side comment can turn me onto a hugely important concept.

Finance still intrigues me, but it’s also fun to be a beginner again; I consider myself a curious novice in running, triathlons, and woodworking.

Michael Burry, of “Big Short” fame, recently shut down his hedge fund and started a Substack with an educational goal. I enjoy following his musings because he’s not afraid to say what he thinks, even if I often don’t agree (or have any idea what he’s obliquely referring to). He recently posted a “foundational” article that is supposed to show his thinking process, with a familiar beginning:

For those that do not trust anything analog, since 1990, there have been over 750 replacements in the S&P 500 Index. Google’s Gemini 3 Pro swears by it. Claude Max agrees.

Gemini 3 Pro and Claude Max further propose that 45% of the top 20 names in the 1999 NASDAQ 100 ended up bankrupt or acquired after a >75% loss. This checks out, my conference room says.

Capital is always fighting to be recycled.

Thusly, you now carry the knowledge that most investors are best off in an index – and have no need to invest in individual stocks.

If one is rather young and has 50-70 years left, then one absolutely should be almost entirely invested in common stock indices, preferably the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100 or both. Live life, touch grass, achieve real things, automatically reinvest dividends, and let the compounding of the Index Gods do the work. Maybe not this very day, but over time, this is the way for most.

Of course, some of us just do…not…want…easy.

For them, well, their God gave them GameStop.

He then goes very deep into how he analyzed GameStop and through skill and smarts, of course made some nice returns on the trade.

This is the central humblebrag of professional investors. *You* should index, but here’s what *I* do instead.

This also relates to the central struggle for all individual investors. If you are a motivated person who studies investing with an honest and open mind, you realize that you probably shouldn’t really be actively trading. But if you are a motivated person who studies investing, you probably think you are in the tiny minority that can make money reliably with actively trading. Smart enough to turn off “easy” mode.

The other problem with “easy” is that it is usuually boring and often slow. Meanwhile, your Robinhood app or equivalent will happily sell you:

• Crypto, including memecoins that have zero utility.
• Gambling, err “Prediction markets” on this weekend’s NFL game.
• “Dividend” ETFs with a crazy 12% yield that some think will last forever.
• Aggressive options that can lose all your money within days.
• “Boomer candy” ETFs that promise stock-like upside with zero downside.
• Index “Plus”. Index with extra ketchup. Index minus the ketchup. Just 25 basis points extra!

I spend a lot of my own time doing just this – reading such interesting ideas across various corners of the investing world but repeatedly convincing myself to pick “easy”. Doing nothing, over and over again.

Walmart has a promotion right now offering new customers $10 off $50+ on their first 3 orders of pickup or delivery with promo code HOLIDAY10. Here is the press release and the fine print with a few restrictions. If you do mostly grocery items like, they should be fine. Might be worth trying just to see if it works. Hat tip to DoC.

Terms & Conditions
– Valid only for your first (3) orders of pickup or delivery.
– $50 order minimum.
– Discount will be applied to your order of pickup or delivery.
– This offer can’t be used for photo, personalized items, pharmacy, gift cards, alcohol or items sold by Marketplace sellers.
– Customer responsible for all applicable taxes.
– This offer may not be combined with other special offers.
– Promotion code expires 12/31/25.
– Offer subject to change or expire without notice.

Everyone is dealing with inflation in their own way, and my response has been trying out all the many “Great Value” items that Walmart offers, from butter to yogurt to canned black beans. And honestly, they’ve mostly been just fine. I feel that Walmart business has been doing so well for this reason, and also because they make their Pickup service very user-friendly:

• Even after making your initial order, you can continuously keep adding OR removing items, right up until they start shopping your order. Many stores don’t let you remove items after ordering.
• Their inventory management is more accurate than before, with fewer out-of-stock items and substitutions. Frequent substitutions are really annoying when you try to meal-plan the entire week ahead, like me.
• If they do substitute, they let you know beforehand and you can decline in the app.
• You can also decline substitutions when you actually pick up, and they will return it for you without you having to enter the store.